xG HUB
Man City PL xG2.41 per game · League leader Arsenal PL xG2.19 per game · 2nd Chelsea PL xGA0.78 per game · Best defence Barcelona La Liga xG2.58 per game · League leader Bayern Munich Bundesliga xG2.88 per game · League leader Atalanta Serie A xG2.39 per game · League leader PSG Ligue 1 xG2.44 per game · League leader Man City PL xG2.41 per game · League leader Arsenal PL xG2.19 per game · 2nd Chelsea PL xGA0.78 per game · Best defence Barcelona La Liga xG2.58 per game · League leader Bayern Munich Bundesliga xG2.88 per game · League leader
2024/25 Season · Updated Apr 30, 2026

EXPECTED
GOALS
STATISTICS

Full xG and xGA tables for the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 team rankings, xG vs actual goals differentials, match-level xG previews, and how to use expected goals to find betting value.

1.44PL Avg xG/Game
2.88Bayern xG/Game
2.58Barca xG/Game
5+Leagues Tracked
About the Analyst VERIFIED TIPSTER
Lead Over 2.5 & BTTS Analyst
Blessed Emmy
Identity verified

12+ years in the industry. Former quantitative scout for West African youth leagues. Creator of the Offensive Flow Trends method an xG-based framework that identifies high-probability goal markets using defensive injury patterns, pressing intensity and managerial tactical setups. All xG data on this page is curated and interpreted by Blessed Emmy.

BSc Mathematics, University of Lagos
74% BTTS
Expertise
NPFL & EPL
Focus
xG & Goal Markets
Experience
12+ Years
Tips Published
3,400+

xG League Tables 2024/25

All stats →
Premier League · Gameweek 31 · Attacking xG
# Team xG/Game Total xG Goals Diff xG Chart
1
Manchester City
Etihad · Guardiola
2.41 74.7 71 -3.7
2.41
2
Arsenal
Emirates · Arteta
2.19 67.9 64 -3.9
2.19
3
Liverpool
Anfield · Slot
2.34 72.5 78 +5.5
2.34
4
Chelsea
Stamford Bridge · Maresca
1.88 58.3 62 +3.7
1.88
5
Newcastle United
St James' Park · Howe
1.74 53.9 55 +1.1
1.74
6
Aston Villa
Villa Park · Emery
1.58 48.9 48 -0.9
1.58
7
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
1.44 44.6 47 +2.4
1.44
8
Brighton & Hove Albion
Amex Stadium · De Zerbi era legacy
1.61 49.9 43 -6.9
1.61
9
Brentford
Gtech Community Stadium · Frank
1.49 46.2 44 -2.2
1.49
10
Fulham
Craven Cottage · Silva
1.41 43.7 46 +2.3
1.41
11
Nottingham Forest
City Ground · Nuno
1.28 39.7 44 +4.3
1.28
12
West Ham United
London Stadium · Lopetegui
1.32 40.9 38 -2.9
1.32
18
Leicester City
King Power Stadium · Van Nistelrooy
1.12 34.7 28 -6.7
1.12
19
Ipswich Town
Portman Road · McKenna
0.98 30.4 24 -6.4
0.98
20
Southampton
St Mary's Stadium · Sørensen
0.88 27.3 21 -6.3
0.88
Premier League · Defensive xGA Best to Worst
# Team xGA/Game Total xGA Goals Conceded Diff xGA Chart
1
Chelsea
Best defence in the league
0.78 24.2 22 -2.2
0.78
2
Arsenal
Solid defensive structure
0.84 26.0 24 -2.0
0.84
3
Manchester City
Elite defensive block
0.91 28.2 30 +1.8
0.91
4
Liverpool
High-line defensive risks
0.98 30.4 28 -2.4
0.98
5
Nottingham Forest
Organised low-block
0.94 29.1 24 -5.1
0.94
18
Leicester City
Relegation-threatened
1.88 58.3 62 +3.7
1.88
19
Ipswich Town
Bottom-three xGA
1.94 60.1 67 +6.9
1.94
20
Southampton
Worst defence in the league
2.11 65.4 72 +6.6
2.11
La Liga · Jornada 31 · xG Rankings
#TeamxG/GameTotal xGGoalsDiffxG Chart
1
Barcelona
Montjuïc · Flick
2.5879.982+2.1
2.58
2
Real Madrid
Bernabéu · Ancelotti
2.4475.671-4.6
2.44
3
Atletico Madrid
Metropolitano · Simeone
1.6149.955+5.1
1.61
4
Athletic Bilbao
San Mamés · Valverde
1.5548.050+2.0
1.55
5
Girona
Montilivi · Míchel
1.6852.144-8.1
1.68
6
Real Betis
Benito Villamarín
1.3140.638-2.6
1.31
18
Valladolid
José Zorrilla · Struggling
0.9128.222-6.2
0.91
19
Osasuna
El Sadar · Survival battle
0.9429.124-5.1
0.94
20
Las Palmas
Gran Canaria · Relegated zone
0.8827.320-7.3
0.88
Bundesliga · Spieltag 29 · xG Rankings
#TeamxG/GameTotal xGGoalsDiffxG Chart
1
Bayern Munich
Allianz Arena · Kompany
2.8883.588+4.5
2.88
2
Bayer Leverkusen
BayArena · Xabi Alonso
2.2164.167+2.9
2.21
3
Borussia Dortmund
Signal Iduna Park · Sahin
1.9155.452-3.4
1.91
4
RB Leipzig
Red Bull Arena · Rose
2.0459.261+1.8
2.04
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Deutsche Bank Park · Toppmoller
1.9255.754-1.7
1.92
16
Holstein Kiel
Holstein-Stadion · Relegated zone
0.8825.520-5.5
0.88
17
Bochum
Vonovia Ruhrstadion
0.8123.518-5.5
0.81
18
Wolfsburg
Volkswagen Arena · Worst attack
0.9126.423-3.4
0.91
Serie A · Giornata 31 · xG Rankings
#TeamxG/GameTotal xGGoalsDiffxG Chart
1
Atalanta
Gewiss Stadium · Gasperini
2.3974.172-2.1
2.39
2
Inter Milan
Giuseppe Meazza · Inzaghi
2.1466.371+4.7
2.14
3
Napoli
Diego Armando Maradona · Conte
1.8858.355-3.3
1.88
4
Juventus
Allianz Stadium · Motta
1.8858.356-2.3
1.88
5
AC Milan
San Siro · Fonseca
1.6651.554+2.5
1.66
6
Roma
Olimpico · Ranieri
1.9259.548-11.5
1.92
7
Lazio
Olimpico · Baroni
1.7453.958+4.1
1.74
19
Lecce
Via del Mare · Relegation battle
0.6921.418-3.4
0.69
20
Monza
U-Power Stadium · Worst attack
0.6118.914-4.9
0.61
Ligue 1 · Journée 29 · xG Rankings
#TeamxG/GameTotal xGGoalsDiffxG Chart
1
PSG
Parc des Princes · Luis Enrique
2.4470.874+3.2
2.44
2
Monaco
Stade Louis II · Hütter
2.0459.262+2.8
2.04
3
Marseille
Vélodrome · De Zerbi
1.8453.455+1.6
1.84
4
Lille
Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Genesio
1.6146.744-2.7
1.61
5
Nice
Allianz Riviera · Haise
1.7149.647-2.6
1.71
16
Le Havre
Stade Oceane · Struggle
0.7421.517-4.5
0.74
17
Toulouse
Stadium de Toulouse
0.8424.419-5.4
0.84
18
Montpellier
La Mosson · Relegated zone
0.7822.615-7.6
0.78

xG vs Goals Biggest Divergences

Full stats →
⬆ Overperforming xG Likely to Regress
#TeamLeaguexG/GGoals/GDiffBetting Implication
1
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
1.281.42 +0.14 Scoring above xG could slow. Value on opponents in upcoming fixtures.
2
Atletico Madrid
La Liga
1.611.77 +0.16 Converting at elite rate above their creation quality regression probable.
3
Lazio
Serie A
1.741.87 +0.13 Outperforming xG useful in BTTS picks where they may slow down.
4
Liverpool
Premier League
2.342.52 +0.18 Elite xG AND elite conversion this efficiency is the most sustainable of any overperformer.
⬇ Underperforming xG Likely to Score More Soon
#TeamLeaguexG/GGoals/GDiffBetting Implication
1
Brighton
Premier League
1.611.39 -0.22 Creating quality chances but not converting. Strong BTTS value in upcoming home games.
2
Roma
Serie A
1.921.55 -0.37 Biggest underperformer in any tracked league. Expect significant uptick in goals buy Roma home win value now.
3
Girona
La Liga
1.681.42 -0.26 Creating significant chances but lacking the finishing to match. Value in their upcoming home fixtures.
4
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
1.911.68 -0.23 Consistently creating more than they score. Watch for BTTS and Over 2.5 value in BVB away fixtures.

Match xG Previews Upcoming Fixtures

All tips →

Expected goals projections for this week's highest-profile fixtures based on season xG averages, home/away splits and head-to-head history.

Arsenal v Tottenham
Premier League · Emirates Stadium · Sat, 12:30 · GW32
NORTH LONDON DERBY
Arsenal
2.19
Projected xG
vs
Tottenham
1.21
Projected xG
Arsenal (64% xG share)
Tottenham (36% xG share)
xG Betting Analysis
Arsenal vs Tottenham xG Breakdown Arsenal's projected xG of 2.19 is the second highest of any Premier League home team this season, driven by their pressing system that forces turnovers in high-value areas and the delivery quality of their wide players. Tottenham's projected xG of 1.21 reflects their reduced attacking threat their depleted forward line this season has consistently underperformed even their limited creative output. The xG differential of 0.98 in Arsenal's favour is significant and supports the Arsenal Win tip at 1.95. The one betting caution: derby fixtures sometimes produce elevated Tottenham xG through set-piece situations that their H2H data supports.
Arsenal Season xG/G 2.19
Arsenal Home xG/G 2.44
Spurs Season xG/G 1.21
Spurs Away xG/G 1.04
xG Differential Arsenal +0.98
Tip Arsenal Win @ 1.95
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga · Allianz Arena · Sat, 18:30 · Der Klassiker
DER KLASSIKER
Bayern Munich
2.88
Projected xG
vs
Borussia Dortmund
1.62
Projected xG
Bayern (64% xG share)
Dortmund (36% xG share)
xG Betting Analysis
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund xG Breakdown The combined projected xG for this fixture is 4.50 the highest of any individual match on this week's card across all leagues. Bayern's 2.88 xG per game is the Bundesliga's highest and their home performance amplifies this further, typically adding 0.4 xG to the season average. Dortmund's 1.62 xG away from the Allianz is slightly below their season average of 1.91, but their attack is too talented to be completely suppressed. The combined xG figure of 4.50 makes Over 2.5 Goals the obvious market selection here it has landed in ten consecutive Klassiker editions. Bayern Win + BTTS at 2.10 is our primary tip.
Bayern Season xG/G 2.88
Bayern Home xG/G 3.21
BVB Season xG/G 1.91
BVB Away xG/G 1.62
Combined xG 4.50
Tip Bayern Win + BTTS @ 2.10
Barcelona v Osasuna
La Liga · Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys · Sat, 16:15 · Jornada 32
LA LIGA
Barcelona
2.58
Projected xG
vs
Osasuna
0.94
Projected xG
Barcelona (73% xG share)
Osasuna (27% xG share)
xG Betting Analysis
Barcelona vs Osasuna xG Breakdown The most lopsided xG projection on this week's card. Barcelona's 2.58 xG per game is the highest in La Liga and their home figure rises to 2.71 at Montjuïc. Osasuna's projected xG of 0.94 is the fifth-lowest in the division they create very few high-quality chances, particularly away from El Sadar. The xG dominance ratio of 73:27 is among the most one-sided in any top-European fixture this weekend. Barcelona Win at 1.40 is the clearest data-supported selection. Over 1.5 Goals in the fixture has landed in all eighteen Barcelona home La Liga games.
Barca Season xG/G 2.58
Barca Home xG/G 2.71
Osasuna Season xG/G 0.94
Osasuna Away xG/G 0.81
xG Ratio 73:27 Barca
Tip Barcelona Win @ 1.40
Atalanta v Inter Milan
Serie A · Gewiss Stadium · Sat, 20:45 · Giornata 32
SERIE A
Atalanta
2.39
Projected xG
vs
Inter Milan
1.58
Projected xG
Atalanta (60% xG share)
Inter Milan (40% xG share)
xG Betting Analysis
Atalanta vs Inter Milan xG Breakdown One of the most entertaining fixture matchups in Serie A from an xG perspective. Atalanta's Gewiss Stadium generates the highest home xG in the division at 2.44 per game. Inter away generate 1.58 xG significantly above the Serie A away average of 1.1. The combined projected xG of 3.97 is the highest for any Serie A fixture this round. Both BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals are strongly backed by the data. Our primary tip is BTTS Yes at 1.80 given Atalanta's inability to maintain clean sheets against high-quality opposition.
Atalanta Home xG/G 2.44
Inter Away xG/G 1.58
Combined xG 3.97
Atalanta Home CS rate 27%
Over 2.5 H2H 8/10
Tip BTTS Yes @ 1.80

xG Benchmark Stats 2024/25

Highest xG/Game (PL)
2.41
Man City · League leader
Best xGA/Game (PL)
0.78
Chelsea · Best defence
Highest xG Europe
2.88
Bayern Munich · Bundesliga
Biggest xG Underperformer
-0.37
Roma · Serie A

About xG Statistics

Expected Goals (xG) Statistics How to Read the Data and Find Betting Value

Expected Goals universally abbreviated as xG is the most important statistical measure in modern football analysis. It quantifies the quality of every shot taken in a match by calculating the probability of that shot resulting in a goal, based on thousands of similar historical shots. A penalty kick from the spot has an xG of approximately 0.79 meaning it results in a goal in about 79 percent of similar situations. A long-range effort from outside the box might have an xG of just 0.03. By summing all of a team's shot xG values across a game, you get that team's total xG for the match a measure of how many goals they "deserved" to score based on the chances they created.

FootyBlazer tracks xG for every team in the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1, updated after every matchday. The tables on this page rank every team by their xG per game (attacking quality) and xGA per game (defensive quality), with the xG-vs-actual-goals differential highlighted to identify teams likely to improve or decline in the coming weeks.

How to Use xG for Smarter Football Betting

The most powerful use of xG in betting is identifying value before bookmakers have priced it in. Bookmakers primarily use recent results and public perception to set their odds which means teams that have been unlucky in front of goal (high xG, low actual goals) are often overpriced as underdogs, while teams that have been fortunate in results (low xG, high actual goals) are often underpriced as favourites.

Roma are the clearest current example of this. With a season xG of 1.92 per game the sixth highest in Serie A but actual goals per game of just 1.55, Roma have been significantly underperforming their chance creation quality. This 0.37 gap is the largest of any team in any tracked league this season. Statistically, Roma are expected to score more goals in the coming weeks as their conversion rate normalises. Backing Roma home wins at extended odds driven by their recent results underperforming their xG represents the type of value that xG analysis consistently identifies ahead of the broader market.

xG vs xGA The Complete Picture

To assess a team's overall quality using expected goals, you need to look at both sides of the equation xG for (attacking) and xGA against (defensive). The ideal profile for a betting favourite is high xG combined with low xGA meaning the team creates plenty of good chances and prevents opponents from doing the same. Manchester City in the current season exemplify this: 2.41 xG per game and just 0.91 xGA per game. This combination produces the highest win probability of any Premier League side when assessed by the xG model.

Teams with high xG but high xGA like Atalanta (2.39 xG, 1.44 xGA) are ideal for BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals betting because both teams tend to create high-quality chances in their fixtures. Teams with low xG and low xGA like Atletico Madrid (1.61 xG, 0.40 xGA) are better for Under 2.5 Goals, clean sheet bets, and backing the favourite to win to nil.

Match xG Projections How FootyBlazer Calculates Them

The match xG projections on this page are calculated using a weighted blend of each team's season xG average, their home or away xG split (which consistently differs from their overall season figure), and the head-to-head xG history between the two specific clubs. Home xG figures are weighted more heavily than season averages because home/away xG splits are significant teams typically generate 15 to 25 percent more xG at home than they do on the road, and concede correspondingly fewer. These projections are updated for every major fixture ahead of kick-off and displayed alongside each tip on the match preview pages.

Responsible Use of xG Statistics

xG is a probabilistic tool, not a certainty engine. Even when a team has a projected xG of 2.5 versus an opponent's 0.8, the lower-xG team can and does win that is the nature of a sport where a single deflected strike can settle a game that dominant possession and quality chances could not. FootyBlazer uses xG as one of several data inputs alongside form, head-to-head records, tactical context, and injury news. All betting tips are for users aged 18 and over. If gambling is negatively affecting your finances or wellbeing, visit BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133.

5 Leagues Tracked
Updated Every Matchday
xG vs Goals Differential
100% Free
Match xG Projections
18+ Only

Frequently Asked Questions

What is xG (Expected Goals) in football?
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure of the quality of scoring chances a team creates or concedes. Each shot is assigned an xG value between 0 and 1 based on its location, angle, assist type, and other factors drawn from historical shot data. Summing all shot xG values gives a team's total xG for a match how many goals they "deserved" based on the chances they created. An xG of 1.0 per game means a team generated enough quality chances to score exactly one goal on average.
How does xG help football betting?
xG reveals the difference between a team's results and their underlying performance. Teams consistently generating high xG but losing or drawing are likely to improve and bookmakers often price them as underperformers, creating betting value. Teams winning despite low xG are overperforming and likely to regress. Using xG identifies this value before the broader market catches up, which is why it is one of the most useful tools for bettors who want an edge beyond basic form analysis.
What is a good xG per game in the Premier League?
The Premier League average xG per team per game is approximately 1.44 in 2024/25. Teams generating above 2.0 xG per game are classed as elite attacking sides currently Manchester City (2.41), Liverpool (2.34), Arsenal (2.19), and Chelsea (1.88). Teams generating below 1.0 xG per game are considered poor attacking sides currently Ipswich Town (0.98) and Southampton (0.88).
What is xGA (Expected Goals Against)?
xGA stands for Expected Goals Against the total xG value of all chances a team has conceded. A low xGA indicates a team is preventing opponents from creating high-quality chances, reflecting strong defensive organisation. Chelsea lead the Premier League's xGA table at 0.78 per game meaning opponents create chances worth just 0.78 expected goals per match against them. A high xGA (like Southampton's 2.11) indicates a defence that consistently gives opponents quality chances.
How often is the xG data on FootyBlazer updated?
FootyBlazer's xG statistics are updated after every matchday across all covered leagues. Premier League and Champions League data is typically refreshed within two hours of the final whistle. Season averages are recalculated weekly and the full league tables on this page are updated every Monday. Match xG projections for upcoming fixtures are published at the start of each matchweek.